Verified · automatic
Model record
NFL · Tracking since Oct 8, 2026
Record
2-3
Units
-0.28u
ROI
-5.6%
Beat the close
3/5
36 picks logged · 31 pending · average +3.1 pts vs the closing line
Early days. 5 graded picks so far. Over fewer than 100 picks, luck swamps skill in either direction, so read the units and ROI as a start, not a verdict.
On the 5 picks that won or lost, the model's average chance was 48.5% and they won 40.0% of the time. The closer those two numbers are, the more honest the model's confidence; neither says it beats the market.
Units over time
-0.28u
One point per graded pick, in the order the games were played. Pending picks are not shown.
By market
Every pick, newest first
KC -7.5 -110
LAC @ KC · Model pick · Posted Oct 11, 10:15 AM PT
Tory Horton Over 1.5 receptions +155
SF @ SEA · Model pick · Posted Oct 11, 9:00 AM PT
Brock Bowers Under 6.5 receptions +107
LV @ NE · Model pick · Posted Oct 11, 9:00 AM PT
Tyson Bagent anytime TD +525
CHI @ GB · Model pick · Posted Oct 11, 8:55 AM PT
Jauan Jennings Over 2.5 receptions +160
MIN @ NO · Model pick · Posted Oct 11, 8:45 AM PT
Joe Burrow Under 1.5 pass tds +160
CIN @ MIA · Model pick · Posted Oct 11, 7:45 AM PT
Malik Willis Under 0.5 pass tds +162
CIN @ MIA · Model pick · Posted Oct 11, 7:45 AM PT
Geno Smith Over 1.5 pass tds +155
CLE @ NYJ · Model pick · Posted Oct 11, 6:01 AM PT
Tyler Shough Over 1.5 pass tds +155
MIN @ NO · Model pick · Posted Oct 10, 11:01 PM PT
Cody White Under 21.5 rec yds +102
LV @ NE · Model pick · Posted Oct 10, 8:00 PM PT
Josh Downs Under 4.5 receptions +110
IND @ PIT · Model pick · Posted Oct 10, 2:01 PM PT
Kyren Williams Over 3.5 receptions +156
BUF @ LAR · Model pick · Posted Oct 10, 2:01 PM PT
Romeo Doubs Under 3.5 receptions +108
LV @ NE · Model pick · Posted Oct 10, 7:00 AM PT
Matthew Golden Under 56.5 rec yds +102
CHI @ GB · Model pick · Posted Oct 9, 2:00 PM PT
Mark Andrews Under 3.5 receptions +112
BAL @ ATL · Model pick · Posted Oct 9, 1:00 PM PT
Darius Cooper Under 2.5 receptions +104
PHI @ JAX · Model pick · Posted Oct 9, 12:00 PM PT
+1.04u
+8.4 pts vs close
Calvin Ridley Over 0.5 receptions -192
HOU @ TEN · Model pick · Posted Oct 9, 11:00 AM PT
Jaylen Waddle Under 4.5 receptions +111
DEN @ LAC · Model pick · Posted Oct 9, 11:00 AM PT
Deshaun Watson Over 1.5 pass tds +160
CLE @ NYJ · Model pick · Posted Oct 9, 10:01 AM PT
Kalif Raymond Over 3.5 receptions +160
CHI @ GB · Model pick · Posted Oct 9, 10:01 AM PT
Ollie Gordon II Under 1.5 receptions +110
CIN @ MIA · Model pick · Posted Oct 9, 10:01 AM PT
Justin Herbert Over 1.5 pass tds +160
DEN @ LAC · Model pick · Posted Oct 8, 8:15 PM PT
Malik Washington Under 43.5 rec yds +107
CIN @ MIA · Model pick · Posted Oct 8, 8:01 PM PT
Derrick Henry Over 1.5 receptions +161
BAL @ ATL · Model pick · Posted Oct 8, 8:01 PM PT
Olamide Zaccheaus Over 1.5 receptions +210
BAL @ ATL · Model pick · Posted Oct 8, 8:01 PM PT
Jonnu Smith Over 1.5 receptions +159
CHI @ GB · Model pick · Posted Oct 8, 7:30 PM PT
Cody White Under 1.5 receptions +105
LV @ NE · Model pick · Posted Oct 8, 7:15 PM PT
Xavier Hutchinson Over 1.5 receptions +118
HOU @ TEN · Model pick · Posted Oct 8, 6:45 PM PT
D'Andre Swift Over 2.5 receptions +159
CHI @ GB · Model pick · Posted Oct 8, 2:30 PM PT
Brian Thomas Jr. Over 2.5 receptions +152
PHI @ JAX · Model pick · Posted Oct 8, 2:00 PM PT
-1.00u
+2.0 pts vs close
Dontayvion Wicks Under 3.5 receptions +115
PHI @ JAX · Model pick · Posted Oct 8, 2:00 PM PT
-1.00u
+6.8 pts vs close
Jalen Hurts Under 0.5 pass tds +159
PHI @ JAX · Model pick · Posted Oct 8, 2:00 PM PT
-1.00u
-0.4 pts vs close
Rashid Shaheed Over 2.5 receptions +164
SF @ SEA · Model pick · Posted Oct 8, 1:45 PM PT
Daniel Jones Over 1.5 pass tds +166
IND @ PIT · Model pick · Posted Oct 8, 1:45 PM PT
Jared Goff Over 2.5 pass tds +160
DET @ ARI · Model pick · Posted Oct 8, 1:45 PM PT
Kenny Gainwell Over 2.5 receptions +168
TB @ DAL · Model pick · Posted Oct 8, 1:45 PM PT
+1.68u
-1.1 pts vs close